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Ten validated risk signal patterns. A prioritised intervention queue. Specific action scripts for every flag type. Not a risk score to interpret — a named pattern the mobility manager immediately recognises, with a specific action to take.
The Core Design Principle
A risk score is a number that the manager must interpret. A named pattern is a situation they immediately recognise — and each one comes with a specific recommended action. The Early Warning Engine doesn't produce dashboards to monitor. It produces an intervention queue to act on.
| Pattern | What It Detects | Typical Timing | Signal Combination | Default Intervention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EW-001 Post-Honeymoon Withdrawal | Engagement drops sharply after high early activity — culture shock onset | Weeks 6–12 | Eng ↓ + trend: declining | Activate social mission chain |
| EW-002 Partner Isolation Risk | Partner not enrolled after week 6 AND family domain below threshold | Week 6+ | partner_enrolled=false + family < 0.45 | Send partner enrollment invitation |
| EW-003 Culture Shock Trough | Sentiment and engagement declining simultaneously below thresholds | Weeks 8–14 | sentiment < -0.3 + eng < 0.5 | Direct mobility manager outreach |
| EW-004 Social Stagnation | Social domain flat below 0.35 despite ongoing engagement — destination-specific | Week 8+ | social < 0.35 + velocity < 0.01 | Activate destination social missions |
| EW-005 Pre-Repatriation Flight Risk | Declining signals in the 90 days before return date | 90 days before return | eng ↓ + sentiment ↓ + days_until_return < 90 | Early repatriation module activation |
| EW-006 Family Adjustment Lag | Family flat below 0.4 while Workplace above 0.65 — hidden household failure | Week 10+ | family < 0.4 + workplace > 0.65 | Partner enrollment + family missions |
| EW-007 Mission Disengagement | Zero missions completed in 3+ weeks when 3 were expected | Any phase | missions_completed_4w = 0 | Personalised re-engagement outreach |
| EW-008 Partner Distress Signal | Partner enrolled but engagement very low AND sentiment declining | Any phase | partner_eng < 0.25 + partner_sentiment ↓ | Direct outreach to employee |
| EW-009 Assignment Completion Risk | Week 16+ with overall progress below 35% AND negative sentiment | Week 16+ | week > 16 + progress < 0.35 + sentiment < 0 | HR escalation + intensive support |
| EW-010 Repatriation Retention Risk | Both engagement and sentiment declining simultaneously during repatriation phase | Repatriation phase | phase=repatriation + eng ↓ + sentiment ↓ | Retention coaching track activation |
The Intervention Queue
Each risk flag generates one card in the mobility manager's intervention queue. The card shows the assignee, the pattern name, a 2–3 sentence plain-language explanation — written without numbers or data terminology — and a primary action button. The manager decides and acts. They do not interpret data.
How the Patterns Get Better Over Time
When a mobility manager acts on an intervention, the platform tracks what happened 30 and 90 days later. Did the signals improve? Did the assignment complete? The Platform Intelligence Engine uses this outcome data to rank interventions by effectiveness, refine signal thresholds, and discover new patterns not yet in the seeded set of ten.
We'll run a live early warning scenario for your destination mix — showing exactly which patterns would fire and what the intervention queue would recommend.
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